Method · Why believe it
Built to refuse the easy answer.
Some models quietly use the future. This engine is designed around the ways that happens, and the ways analysts fool themselves.
The rules the engine cannot break.
One clock
Every decision sees only what existed before it: earlier transactions, including earlier ones in the same block. Never the decision's own transaction, never anything after.
Timelines it never saw
Rules are learned on an earlier period and scored out-of-sample on a later one. Trades that straddle the cut are purged, so no outcome leaks across the boundary.
Every search is counted
The whole search is re-run on shuffled outcomes (a permutation null) and corrected for multiple testing, so luck cannot manufacture a finding. Every variable's weight is audited.
Missing is not zero
If data was not captured, the engine says so. Absent history never becomes a quiet zero, and uncovered windows are marked, not filled.
Known-answer tests
A wallet with written rules goes through the same engine and the rules are recovered. A wallet with no rules confirms about as often as chance allows, which is the designed error rate.
It is told nothing
The engine is never given the answers from earlier hand research. Those stay in a grader-only key used to check its work afterwards.
Standards · Said plainly
What a finding means.
- Genesis rebuilds the logic, not the literal code: a policy you can run, recovered from what the wallet actually did.
- The engine reads what the chain records. Anything outside of that is unknown.
- A rule that survives out-of-sample testing is the strongest explanation the data allows. Cerberus, our tracker, shadow and emulator, will confirm it live against the wallet's next moves.
- Where evidence is thin, the engine abstains instead of guessing.
Every claim in a report carries a label: source observation, deterministic reconstruction, statistical association, strategy hypothesis, or insufficient evidence.